Bubbles and Beachheads

You are proud and rightly so. Your technology will change the world.

But how do you know that your technology is not part of a Tech Bubble? How do you know you can survive the famous Gartner’s Hype cycle?

Sometimes, it is good to look for answers from an academic viewpoint, then to go back to business to implement what we make sense of it. I attended a 3-day class at INSEAD last week on Technology & Innovation Strategy, with Prof. Michaël Bikard. I was fascinated by how our class discussion about the above issue resonated with what many startups’ founders are facing or will face.

When you are in the “Tech Summer”, which is the hype of Gartner’s cycle, you must acknowledge it, so that you can act upon it before winter is coming.

Over the past 150 years, there have been 4 drivers of technology bubbles:

• The degree of uncertainty surrounding the innovation

• The attentive presence of novice investors

• The opportunity to directly invest in "pure players"

• Whether or not a technology is a good protagonist in a narrative.

Actions:

• Build your own “Bubble Barometer” to identify if your technology is in one of them.

• Then decide how you play the “Bubble Balance”, either in an offensive or in a defensive way, depending on your internal resources and the surrounding ecosystem.

• Hint: it is often a matter of timing.

This decision must help you to survive the “Tech Winter”, which is the trough of disillusionment in Gartner’s cycle. This is happening at the “Roadmap Fit” step of the “From Tech To Growth^IP” framework, where your Tech Genius meets your Market niche.

Action: You work on a technology to make it good enough for users AND you work to identify a market which will accept an imperfect technology.

This is your Beachhead business.

According to Michaël Bikard, “A beachhead business is a small, focused, and strategically chosen entry point into an emerging market or technological paradigm. It is designed to be reachable, revenue-generating, and strategically informative—serving as a launchpad for learning, credibility-building, and future positioning. While it may not scale directly, it reduces dependence on external funding, reveals early signals, and helps unlock access to larger, longer-term opportunities.”

Some reflective questions:

• Have you identified your Beachhead, the one that can help you survive a Tech Winter?

• Have you identified who will be the first paying users of your Tech Genius?

• Have you identified ways to test your beachhead hypothesis without spending too much time and resources?

Thank you.

Philippe

 P.S.1. You may take the “From Tech To Growth” self-assessment scorecard. It is free, it only takes two minutes. It offers some reflective questions on the 9 steps and provides some customized tips based on your score.

P.S.2. Whenever you are ready, you can take a short, complementary appointment with me to discuss your business growth issues at hand. Go to the “From Tech To Growth” Recognition Call.

Philippe Poggianti, CEO, Poggianti Insights

[email protected]

+33-6-6404-3802